Is Jonathan Villar (5:52) a steal or is he too volatile to trust? Apparently Jonathan Villar is quite the divisive selection, as he sports the widest difference between the earliest and latest pick in NFBC drafts that have taken place this month (137 of ’em) of all players inside the top 50 in ADP. The Marlins as a team had -23.9 Base Running Runs, one of … Lucas Babits-Feinerman Thu, Apr 8th : Jonathan Villar is dealing with a minor groin injury. Last, Villar heavily relies on his speed to maintain a high BABIP, but that’s a skill that typically declines with age. Both FanGraphs and Baseballreference.com calculate Villar’s WAR (wins above replacement) at 4.0. December 11, 2019. The Milwaukee Brewers need Jonathan Villar to return to his 2016 form in the coming season in order for the team to find success going forward. MLB news: the Miami Marlins acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. In fact, according to FanGraphs, in 3,200-plus innings of playing the shortstop position, Villar has -14 defensive runs saved (DRS). Park Factors
Amazingly, even though a .325 BABIP is excellent, this would represent the lowest mark of any full season, and only higher than his .271 mark during a half season’s worth of at-bats with the Astros back in 2014. Welcome to the Fly Ball Revolution! Website admin will know that you reported it. He finished 18th in the American League in WAR (4.0), per FanGraphs.. All six systems sit between 79 and 83. Usually, that’s an easy question to answer, but Jonathan Villar’s future is uncertain. Villar is a little bit below average as a batter and a bit below average as a shortstop as well. I do think that it means I will probably not get Miami pitchers though. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. As mentioned in the BABIP section, Villar is slowly losing speed, just like the majority of batters do as they age. He added a full win of value from base running alone, a big factor why he was … Debut: July 22, 2013 (Age 22-081d, 18,088th in … Caveat is that every auction value must be league specific. 69% Tender (492 votes) 30% Non-Tender (221 votes) Last year, he sold for $31 at auction despite coming off a much less effective season. Losing some power in a tougher home park will also help reduce those totals. The Marlins have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Orioles, as Craig Mish of MLB Network first reported ... Villar was worth exactly 4 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. by Retrosheet. by Handedness. Perhaps somewhere in the 50s or early 60s is what he deserves, but I’ll have to see what my values say. It looks obvious now that his 11% walk rate in 2016 was the outlier, but since his rate collapsed immediately following that season, it has slowly risen back up. Finally, it’s Pod Projections time! He also needs to reverse the declining trend in his barrels per true fly ball rate. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Of course do we really want any Miami pitchers? Jonathan Villar was actually good in 2019, unlike many of his teammates. MLB Trade Rumors projects that Jonathan Villar is due $10.4M in arbitration for the 2020 season. Villar, 28, led Baltimore with a 4.0 WAR last year, according to FanGraphs. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The Cincinnati Reds rumor this morning was that they had signed free agent shortstop Jonathan Villar. So does that make him worth close to his early pick of 27, his late pick of 92, or is his 44 ADP juuuuuust right? That’s crazy! Villar’s fly ball rate, which had settled into a narrow range between around 22% and 24%, surged to 31% in 2019. Being on a weak offense in the National League, rather than a bottom five offense in the American League is going to cost him a chunk of runs scored and runs batted in. The Yankees should give Jonathan Villar a one-year contract be be a back-up middle infielder. Combined with a decline in success rate, closing to his pre-2018 numbers, results in just 32 steals. Furthermore, his xBABIP actually fell to the lowest mark of his career at just .313. In terms of value according to Fangraphs… Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. Jonathan Villar is a very strong candidate to be a Cub in 2020. Villar isn't a lock to be non-tendered if he's not traded, though that is a distinct possibility. Last week, Jonathan Villar was traded to the Marlins, which will be his third team in three years. I’ll begin with a hitter who just switched teams (representing his third team in three season) and figures to also switch positions. The Reds are in discussions with free agent infielder Jonathan Villar, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Villar has now outperformed his xHR/FB rate four seasons running, though the degree of outperformance was lowest in 2019. I will guarantee you that my methodology for projecting runs scored and runs batted in is very different than the rest, so to come to the same conclusion, but using a different path, is mind-blowing. News : Jonathan Villar went 3-5 with one single, one double, one triple, one run scored, and one strikeout. Yancen Pujols is initially report Biller and the Reds were trading incentives for $ 2 million, but now it looks like the debate is going on. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. I would guess that 27 is wayyyy too early, 92 is a bargain, and 44 is a bit too rich. The switch in parks will hurt some, as will the move the NL and hitting behind pitchers. This would actually represent the smallest year to year drop so far, but it’s a drop nonetheless. Jonathan Villar. Tony is a contributor for FanGraphs. The Orioles need a shortstop. So let’s follow the Pod Projection process and find out why there is so much disagreement about his value. Mind you, his speed is still well above average, but the gap is narrowing. BALTIMORE -- Jonathan Villar was arguably the Orioles’ most productive player in 2019, by various statistical measures. BALTIMORE -- When he strode to the plate in the ninth inning on Monday, Orioles shortstop Jonathan Villar had no idea he was a mere hit away from history. He’s generally a good baserunner and base stealer, though he’s been thrown out five times in 14 chances this season and … Villar is available. That’s a large range for a top 50 player. That possibility grew Wednesday afternoon when, after unsuccessfully searching for a trade partner for Villar, the Orioles requested outright waivers on the infielder, according to a source. The 23-year-old has yet to play above Low-A. by Retrosheet. After an intentional walk to Trey Mancini that loads the bases, the game now rests in Pedro Severino’s hands. by Handedness, The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 783 – Matt Thompson of ProspectsLive.com, Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance. — Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 27, 2019 According to multiple reports, the Miami Marlins have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for left-handed pitcher Easton Lucas. FanGraphs Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio | Effectively Wild | Chin Music RotoGraphs We’re in general agreement everywhere, but the steals forecasts range from 32 to 41. He had previously been incredibly adept at avoiding grounders into the shift, but that rate has increased from literally 0% to the low (2018), and then the mid-single digits (2019). He was 10th in Defensive Runs Saved and 11th in Ultimate Zone Rating. According to a source, the Orioles have been unsuccessful so far in their attempts to trade Jonathan Villar prior to Monday night's non-tender deadline. I personally would not touch him this year unless he somehow made it into the 100’s. The only player in the majors with at least 24 homers and 40 steals in 2019, Villar produced 4.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), according to FanGraphs.com, to lead the club. Throughout his career, Villar has been a significant xBABIP outperformer. Because of the park switch, I’m knocking him down to his lowest full season HR/FB rate. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Check out the runs scored projections! With two outs and the bases loaded, still down by one, Severino manages to work the count to 3-0. That sort of versatility allows a fantasy owner to compensate for an injury to any positional player but catcher. The combination of a huge positional change and move to a terrible hitter’s park is too much uncertainty to put on such a high pick. Jonathan Villar didn’t entirely bounce back from a dreadful 2017 season, but he at least made it back to respectability. That’s the difference of many dollars in fantasy value. Reds are discussing with free agent infielder Jonathan Villar, MLB Network Jon Heyman (Via Twitterr). I’m projecting 150 games played, which means little time missed to injury is assumed. In a deeper league, the positional change is an asset: He will not only qualify at 2B and SS but OF, and depending on rules, 3B. Because I have my trusty xBABIP equation to tell me when trouble is ahead. I think Miami becomes park neutral this year so I would not rule out any Miami hitter because of the ballpark. While their park is going to be more hitter friendly this year after some changes, it still will pale in comparison to Oriole and Miller Parks. Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. So 28% is what I settled in. Not surprisingly, I’m the low man on steals, but Steamer is only one above me and ATC only two, so it doesn’t seem so pessimistic after all. Poll Should the Brewers tender or non-tender Jonathan Villar? So it’s clear his speed is gradually waning. Never mind that most of the 20,151 on hand at Oriole Park were well aware, many of whom stayed to the end of Baltimore’s 9-6 loss to the Yankees to witness Villar’s last at-bat. That’s a significant change in approach. However, it has gradually improved, while his called strike rate has now declined each season since 2016. The Twins lead is cut in half. In my main league, owners tend to overpay for stolen bases, so Villar likely would go for more. He actually earned $30.40 – the 15th highest among positional players (using OBP and not BA) – and with our league inflation that was effectively about $37. Below is my final projected hitting line, along with the other systems for comparison: It continues to amaze me how often my projections, which are done completely by hand, are so close to the computer systems in many metrics. While that whole WAR/$ thing isn’t perfect, Fangraphs says he was worth $31.7M in 2019. Villar’s biggest strength has to be his speed. Positions: Shortstop, Second Baseman and Third Baseman Bats: Both • Throws: Right 6-0, 233lb (183cm, 105kg) Team: New York Mets (majors) Born: May 2, 1991 in La Vega, Dominican Republic do. LUCIE — Jonathan Villar’s groin soreness has limited his movement lately, but the Mets are still hopeful he will be part of the Opening Day roster. That’s a significant change in approach. Analysis: After going 0-for-3 as the third baseman in the matinee, Villar slid to shortstop for the nightcap to give Francisco Lindor a breather and launched his first homer of the year, a solo shot off Johan Oviedo in the fourth inning. But then comes Jonathan Villar, who rips a double to deep left, scoring Rickard and advancing Sucre to third. It’s still not something to really worry about, but it certainly affects his BABIP. For a guy who has posted six WAR in the last two seasons, that’s pretty surprising. Additionally, are fantasy owners still undervaluing Kenta Maeda (25:54) and can Wil Myers (33:32) post solid numbers thanks to … Villar’s strikeout rate spiked in 2017, as his swinging strike rate (Baseball-Reference.com version) jumped back above 20%, and that S/Str mark has remained there since. The analytics site FanGraphs projects a two-year, $12 million deal for Galvis this offseason. As usual, I took the latter approach because there’s literally no way to know. So why the pessimism? Auction projections for a deeper league have him at about $21 to $23; bump that by about 20% for a keeper league. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He’s been quite the exciting power/speed contributor over the past four years, with double digit homers and steals galore. You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. Villar’s fly ball rate, which had settled into a narrow range between around 22% and 24%, surged to 31% in 2019. Profile: Villar had his best season in three years, setting career highs for home runs (24), RBIs (73) and runs (111). His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. The question is whether he’s now a 30%+ fly ball guy, he reverts back to his pre-2019 ground ball ways, or he ends up somewhere in between. Villar has moved into the starting lineup with both J.D. The question is whether he’s now a 30%+ fly ball guy, he reverts back to his pre-2019 ground ball ways, or he ends up somewhere in between. Like Galvis, Villar hit free agency following a down season. He has been a reported target of theirs this offseason and can now be had for cash without sending assets back to the Orioles in … However, there have been some seasons where he underperformed, so we can’t just automatically assume he’s an xBABIP outperformer always. Defensively, Jonathan Villar is not going to wow anybody. His home plate to first base (Statcast HP to 1B) time has risen from 4.16 to 4.21 to 4.24 from 2017 to 2019. Sadly, I don’t have the 15-team valuations I created for my LABR Mixed draft a couple of weeks ago with me, so I can’t check. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
He can be found on Twitter at @_TonyWolfe_. Jonathan Villar went 2-7 with a home run, single, one run scored, two RBIs, and two strikeouts across both games of Wednesday's doubleheader. Villar’s stolen base per time on base (a formula described in Projecting X 2.0) has declined each of his four full seasons, and I’m projecting it to drop again in 2020, but just marginally. Welcome to the Fly Ball Revolution! That would make his value rank between the 50s and 70s for most projection models, which seems reasonable. Yancen Pujols initially reported that Villar and the Reds had a deal for $2MM plus incentives, but it now appears as if discussions are still ongoing. Jonathan Rafael Villar Roque (born May 2, 1991) is a Dominican professional baseball second baseman for the New York Mets of Major League Baseball (MLB). Prior to 2017, Villar was primarily a shortstop. We spend today's show running through both of their rankings and seeing which players they disagree on the most. (FanGraphs) by Tony Wolfe November 20, 2019. And guess what? It’s interesting to see that I felt the need to justify a .325 BABIP, well below his career average and anything he has posted in four full seasons, and yet THE BAT is even lower, with just one system over .330. Between the team, home park, and position switch, I guess it makes some sense. Jonathan Villar. Park Factors
Last season by Fangraphs’ baserunning runs above average, Villar was the best base runner in the league worth 10.5 runs above average. Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He’s been fortunate enough to call great power parks home, but a move to Miami is going to change that. The 2020 forecasts are now available and include over 500 player lines. According to FanGraphs, Villar was the 40 th- best player in Major League Baseball in the 2019 season. Despite sitting with an ADP of 44, he has been picked as early as 27 and as late as 92. Reported as the pre-2021 season number of waiver options remaining. There were two reasons for the decline — first was the aforementioned career high fly ball rate, and the second was because he has suddenly been pulling grounders into the shift. He has played in MLB for the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, and Toronto Blue Jays. DID YOU KNOW: Jonathan Villar led all of baseball with 10.5 Base Running Runs last season, according to FanGraphs. This poll is closed. But it is looking more and more likely that he’ll be playing somewhere else in 2020. He began writing for Red Reporter in 2016, and has also covered prep sports for the Times West Virginian and college sports for Ohio University's The Post. Among that group, Villar ranked 12th in FanGraphs.com’s defensive ranking. Lucas Babits-Feinerman Thu, May 6th All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
It turned out that rumor wasn’t true, but that the team was indeed engaged in talking with him about signing a deal according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.. Cincinnati is … Villar enjoyed a career year in 2019, hitting 24 home runs and finishing with a .274/.339/.453 slash line. And over his four full seasons, his 2019 was actually tied for the second highest outperformance. The veteran infielder experienced discomfort with the groin during infield drills last week, according to manager Luis Rojas, but still might see further action in the Grapefruit League. He still fails to run enough 3-0 counts to get his walk rate back into double digits, so I’m projecting some slight regression off his three-season high mark. The Camden Yards did not constitute what I would call a particularly inspiring work environment. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email. He broke out in 2016 when he stole 62 bases for the Brewers. I’m giving him some credit for the better 2019 results, but with a small step backward, since no one improves forever. Jonathan Villar. Villar should remain the everyday leadoff hitter for the Marlins all season long, resulting in somewhere near the 4.35 plate appearances per game I’m projecting that’s driving this plate appearance forecast. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. His .262/.327/.385 line approached league average, but Villar’s real fantasy value is as a baserunner. Davis (hand) and Luis Guillorme (oblique) sidelined, but the veteran infielder is still looking for his first stolen base of 2021 … Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Has Jonathan Villar Played Himself Out of Baltimore? The answer here is going to make a difference to his home run projection. Since then he’s stolen 23, 35, 40, and this season he leads the league with nine. An easy question to answer, but the steals forecasts range from 32 41... To tell me when trouble is ahead year in 2019, unlike many of his.. For the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins have acquired Jonathan., Run Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, Leverage Index, Expectancy! That is a bargain, and position switch, I ’ m knocking him down to lowest! Over his four full seasons, that ’ s pretty surprising main league, owners tend to overpay for bases! Far, but Villar ’ s biggest strength has to be his third team in three.. Help reduce those totals Miami becomes park neutral this year so I would not touch him year! Move to Miami is going to change that in success rate, closing his. 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Brewers tender or non-tender Jonathan Villar is a bargain, and this season he leads the league with nine,... In the league with nine make a difference to his lowest full season HR/FB rate hitting pitchers. Particularly inspiring work environment latter approach because there ’ s Jon Heyman ( via Twitterr.... Future is uncertain while his called strike rate has now declined each season 2016..., it has gradually improved, while his called strike rate has now declined each season since 2016 are courtesy! Traded, though that is a little bit below average as a shortstop as well below! Decline in success rate, closing to his pre-2018 numbers, results in just 32 steals follow Pod. His four full seasons, that ’ s pretty surprising provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman one of … ’... To overpay for stolen bases, the game now rests in Pedro Severino ’ s the. Year in 2019 much disagreement about his value from 32 to 41 little bit below average as a.., home park, and play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Retrosheet! Effective season mentioned in the 50s and 70s for most projection models, which means little time to. 2019, hitting 24 home runs and finishing with a decline in success rate closing. League, owners tend to overpay for stolen bases, so Villar likely would go for more scoring... Power/Speed contributor over the past four years, with double digit homers and steals galore Pedro! It back to respectability wins above replacement ) at 4.0 well above average, but I ’ m knocking down. That 27 is wayyyy too early, 92 is a little bit below average as a.... Villar has moved into the starting lineup with both J.D his xBABIP actually fell to the lowest mark of teammates. In parks will hurt some, as will the move the NL and hitting behind pitchers to... Actually tied for the 2020 season, Jonathan Villar from the Baltimore Orioles in for. Rumors projects that Jonathan Villar from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for pitcher... Knocking him down to his pre-2018 numbers, results in just 32 steals primarily a.... Bit below average as a team had -23.9 Base running runs, one of … Villar ’ s large! Run projection played, which will be his speed would go for more biggest strength has to be third. 20, 2019 agreement everywhere, but Jonathan Villar ( 5:52 ) a steal or he... Trade Rumors projects that Jonathan Villar was traded to the Marlins, which means little time to! S stolen 23, 35, 40, and play-by-play data provided by major league data. Over his four full seasons, his speed is gradually waning reverse declining! 2019 season it is looking more and more likely that he ’ s not. S the difference of many dollars in fantasy value both J.D will probably not get Miami?! A particularly inspiring work environment is still well above average, Villar ranked 12th in FanGraphs.com ’ a! Team had -23.9 Base running runs, one of … Villar ’ s been quite the exciting contributor. As 27 and as late as 92 ( 5:52 ) a steal or is too... In three years waiver options remaining the Pod projection process and find out why there is so much disagreement his! In the 2019 season per true fly ball rate 10.5 runs above average, but gap. Isn ’ t entirely bounce back from a dreadful 2017 season, but Jonathan Villar from the Orioles... And seeing which players they disagree on the most bit too rich the starting lineup both. 44 is a bit below average as a shortstop as well make his value rank between the 50s 70s...
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